What does history say about Islanders, Golden Knights late-season coa…

What does history say about Islanders, Golden Knights late-season coaching change? originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

For most of the NHL’s 2025-26 regular season, the coaching carousel was slow, almost too slow. As we approached the end of March, it was looking like we might get through a full season with just the one coaching change.

But in a span of only eight days beginning on March 29, we’ve had two coaches fired, with the Vegas Golden Knights first firing Bruce Cassidy and hiring journeyman coach John Tortorella – then, on Sunday afternoon, the New York Islanders pink-slipped Patrick Roy, replacing him with former Dallas Stars bench boss Peter DeBoer.

Although there is a history of NHL GMs making late-season coaching changes, is there a track record of success that should reassure Golden Knights and Islanders fans that these moves will pay off? From this writer’s perspective, we’re not entirely sold.

To begin, the Columbus Blue Jackets replaced Dean Evason with veteran Rick Bowness this season and received a major bump. While the timing differs from that of the Golden Knights and Islanders, the Blue Jackets went on an outstanding run from January onwards, putting them in a playoff spot recently.

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They now sit two points back of a playoff spot while competing with six other teams. The verdict remains undetermined if their move completely pays off, but at the very least, it gave them a chance, something they didn’t have before.

Furthermore, legendary New Jersey Devils GM Lou Lamoriello indeed made the right choice when he fired coach Robbie Ftorek with only eight games left in the 1999-2000 regular season. Under replacement Larry Robinson, the Devils went on to win the Stanley Cup that year, underscoring Lamoriello’s ruthless brilliance – something he would show again in the 2006-07 season when he fired Devils coach Claude Julien with just three games left. But the move did not pay off that time, as the Ottawa Senators eliminated New Jersey in the second round of the playoffs.

MORE: Islanders Fire Patrick Roy With Four Games Remaining; Name Pete DeBoer Coach

So, while the addition of DeBoer and the structure he’s provided to multiple teams over the years will probably help Isles stars Matthew Schaefer and Mathew Barzal, we’re more skeptical of Tortorella’s impact on the Golden Knights.

Vegas did win its first three games under Tortorella, beating the Vancouver Canucks, Calgary Flames, and Edmonton Oilers. Still, the Golden Knights are likely to have a much tougher road in the first round when they take on either the Oilers or the Anaheim Ducks. There’s a reason why Tortorella has bounced between five different NHL teams since his debut in 2001 – his coaching style tends to wear thin with players fairly easily.

At the same time, Tortorella has been able to get the best of his players in short instances. When players buy into his play style, immediate results seem to follow.

In any case, the firings of Roy and Cassidy show that no NHL coach is 100 percent secure at any time. You can see why GMs might buy into the idea that changing the person in charge of the players will provide the jolt needed to ensure players perform at their best. Still, if that’s all it took to motivate players into winning a Cup, every team in the league would be doing it every season.

The truth is that firing a coach toward the end of the season is an enormous gamble. You do it out of desperation, or because you think the coach has lost the room. Bringing in someone with experience who can provide a boost to players with a mere handful of days left to turn things around.

The Islanders and Golden Knights took different approaches to their new coaching situations: Vegas hired Tortorella on a shorter-term basis, while the Isles gave DeBoer a multi-year contract. But who’s kidding whom – if DeBoer can’t coax a better performance out of Islanders players, he won’t be around Long Island for very long.

MORE: John Tortorella coaching timeline: Golden Knights are shocking addition to fiery coach's lengthy resume

The coaching business is cutthroat. Everywhere you look, there’s a potential pitfall that could get you fired as a coach. As we’re seeing once again this season, you could be fired at virtually any moment. It’s no wonder coaches feel pressure, but that’s the world in which we live.

You are hired in coaching to be fired in coaching, and that’s as true as ever. So the next time someone is fired, maybe in the second round of the playoffs this year, or maybe this summer, don’t act surprised. The coaching carousel continues, and nothing is going to change it.

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Saturday night, Aday Mara was a 3-cent contract on Kalshi. As of this morning, he's at 38 cents and the MOP favorite heading into tonight's National Championship Game.

That chart doesn't lie. Traders watched Mara drop 26 points on 11-for-16 shooting against Arizona's elite interior defense while Yaxel Lendeborg played 14 minutes and left with a sprained MCL and rolled ankle. The market spent the weekend repricing what Michigan actually looks like tonight, and its conclusion is blunt: Mara is now the most likely player to win this award.

The question worth asking before tip-off isn't whether Mara can win MOP. The market has already decided he's the most likely candidate. The question is whether 38 cents is a fair price or whether the surge has overshot.

What drove the movement

Lendeborg's price tells the story. He came into the Final Four at 27 cents, surged toward 35 as Michigan dominated, then cratered to 23 after the injury news settled in. He says he's still playing "unless he can't walk," but the market has now priced him as a secondary contributor rather than the decisive force. A 4-point drop for a technically active player reflects real uncertainty about his effectiveness, not his presence.

Mara's 35-point surge in 48 hours is one of the sharpest single-player moves you'll see in a tournament MOP market. That kind of repricing usually means the market found a mispricing and corrected it hard. The starting point was absurdly low; Mara at 3 cents was the market essentially ignoring him. Now it's overcorrecting in the other direction, or fairly pricing a new reality. Which one it is depends entirely on how Lendeborg's ankle holds up tonight.

The structural case for Aday Mara

This isn't just an injury narrative. Mara has scored 14+ points in eight of the last 11 games for the Michigan Wolverines. Against UConn, he draws Tarris Reed Jr., who's an excellent player but gave up 26 points to a nearly identical offensive center profile two days ago. UConn ranks 229th nationally in opponent block rate, which means Mara will be operating in space he typically doesn't find against elite competition.

The MOP award is almost always won by the most impactful player on the winning team. Michigan is a 74% favorite to win the title on Kalshi. If the Wolverines win and Lendeborg is at 70% health, Mara is the player most likely to fill that production gap.

The honest tension in the market

Reed at 19 cents is up 10 points from Saturday, a significant move for a player on the 26% side of the title market. Traders are pricing a UConn Huskies upset scenario, and if they win, Reed is almost certainly walking away with MOP. He's averaged 21.8 points and 13.5 rebounds this tournament. The 31-point, 27-rebound performance against Furman in the first round is the kind of thing MOP voters don't forget.

If you think UConn is underpriced at 26 cents to win the title, and there's a reasonable case given their dynasty-level experience under Dan Hurley, then Reed at 19 cents is the most interesting contract on this board. You're essentially getting a leveraged play on a UConn upset.

The bottom line

The market's overnight repricing is rational. Mara at 3 cents was wrong. Whether 38 cents is right depends on one variable: how many minutes Lendeborg plays and how effective he is when he's out there.

If he's limited to 20 minutes of half-speed basketball, Mara at 38 is probably fair or even cheap. If Lendeborg plays through it and looks like himself, Mara just became expensive, and Lendeborg is a clear value trade.

The market has done the heavy lifting of identifying the right question. Your view on Lendeborg's ankle is now the trade.

Prices as of 1:30 PM ET. This market is live and moves continuously until tip-off, check current prices at Kalshi before trading.

Trade the MOP market on Kalshi.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Forwards Rickard Rakell of the Pittsburgh Penguins, Jack Hughes of the New Jersey Devils and Robert Thomas of the St. Louis Blues were named the NHL’s three stars Monday.

Rakell led the NHL with seven goals to pace Pittsburgh to a 4-1-0 record. His current five-game goal streak is one shy of his career high, set from Dec. 21, 2017 to Jan. 2, 2018.

Hughes earned second-star honours after topping the NHL with nine points (three goals, six assists) to lead the Devils to points in three of their four games (2-1-1). Hughes, 24, has 72 points (25 goals, 47 assists) in 56 games this season.

Thomas was the third star after accumulating eight points (five goals, three assists) in four games with the Blues (2-1-1). The 26-year-old has points in 16 of his last 18 games and leads the Blues in scoring with 56 points (21 goals, 35 assists) through 58 games.